Thursday 11 October 2018









S. Vijay Kumar, a shipping company executive based in Singapore, was instrumental in the return of a 12th-century Buddha stolen in India 57 years ago. It was handed over by UK authorities to the Indian High Commission in London to coincide with India’s Independence Day celebrations in August. Kumar has dabbled in helping India recover its stolen antiques since 2007, co-founding the India Pride Project in 2014 to promote social media coverage of stolen items and releasing his book The Idol Thief in Mumbai, which reads like a whodunit, this summer. He speaks to The Art Newspaper about his investigations, which have led to the recovery of 28 such objects, with many more in the pipeline.
The Art Newspaper: What role did you play in the recent return from the UK of the 12th-century Buddha that was stolen from a Bihar museum in 1961?
S. Vijay Kumar: I was put in contact with Sachindra Biswas, a former head of the National Museum in Delhi who had kept detailed records of two thefts of Buddhas, which India had been unsuccessful in solving since the 1960s. When Lynda Albertson of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art was planning to visit The European Fine Arts Fair (Tefaf) in Maastricht this March, I asked her to keep an eye out for Indian objects on sale.
A London dealer was selling Himalayan Buddhist art including a Buddha that I recognised from one of the images provided by Biswas. Albertson contacted the Netherlands police and I reached out to the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI). The dealer was asked to remove the object from sale and to report back to the Metropolitan Police once he was back in London. We also passed on this information to the police. The head of the ASI wrote to the Indian High Commission as well.
The police contacted the International Council of Museums, which arranged for a neutral expert to examine the object and he agreed with our assessment. The owner and dealer surrendered it on condition that their identities were kept secret; a legal case would have been too complicated. It was handed over to the High Commission in August.
I am using Biswas’s records to prove that another Buddha, now in a Los Angeles museum, has also been stolen from India.
The 12th-century Buddha was returned to India this year after S. Vijay Kumar spotted it for sale by at a London dealer © Metropolitan police/PA
You focus on the plundering by a New York-based Indian art dealer, Subhash Kapoor, who is now in custody in India. Is he the biggest smuggler of Indian antiques abroad?
Actually, Kapoor was an inconsequential dealer and I believe he moved into the space left vacant by larger networks. We have villains like Kapoor almost every decade!
What is their modus operandi?
The networks have been getting more brazen with the high sums involved these days. First were the days of the diplomatic pouch [the secure means of transporting items between a diplomatic mission and its home country], later it moved to getting fakes made, procuring export licences and switching the originals during export. Nowadays with blatant corruption and lack of experts within the system, container-loads go out with just a wrong declaration.
Your list of institutions associated with Kapoor—most of them not illegally—runs to six pages. Can you tell us about the complicity of museums?
The list is from Kapoor’s now-defunct Art of Past website. None of these institutions ever objected to Kapoor openly listing them and projecting his larger-than-life image. US law enforcement had directed all institutions and collectors to review their association with this website. Not a single institution or collector volunteered any information nor made an attempt to declare the provenance of the objects in their collections. This is no flash in the pan; we are in for the long haul.
There is a lack of initiative to clean up the wrongs of the past. US museums in the US are still not putting up detailed information even on their purchases; when we get into donations, things get even murkier. The same is true of Australian museums where we have seen lack of due diligence on provenance and also on the cost of the acquisitions. There have also been cases where the curator seems to have rather puzzlingly asked the valuer of a gift to change his valuation and cite a higher value! Sadly, in almost all cases, the worst that seems to happen to such people is a dignified early release or retirement.
While you make a case for retaining ancient idols in temples, not all of them can guard against theft.
This is akin to ivory—when the buying stops, the looting stops. We are also working on building a proper national archive and also a set of red flags for our own custodians. We believe that the art world can do due diligence and ensure that it doesn’t look at source nations as easy targets even when faced with apparently foolproof but fake paperwork. Dealers should not ignore clear give-aways like fresh looting marks, chisel marks on stone and oil stains on bronzes.
You accuse Indian agencies too for their negligence at best and criminality at worst.
Yes, we have not done enough to dismantle the supply chain and expose the criminal nexus. We have online Customs and Enforcement Directorate data for hundreds and thousands of shipments that has not yet been used to secure prosecutions. Art crime is still nascent in India and we hope with the book and my work over the past decade, India will set up a proper art crime unit at the central level and stop this targeted looting of our heritage.
How does a night-time sleuth like you go about their investigations?
It started off as a hobby, like an addictive game, but now it’s grown too big for me. But thanks to social media, our small yet significant successes will surely inspire not only me but also leave a lasting legacy amongst like-minded youth, enthusiasts, experts and organisations who will come out and continue the fight to protect our ancestral treasures and restore India’s Pride. No longer is Indian art fair game for looters—we are watching.
https://www.theartnewspaper.com/interview/amateur-art-sleuth-who-is-helping-india




Appeared in The Art Newspaper305 October 2018

Sunday 30 September 2018





India to double emissions by 2030, but within Paris commitments

,  21.08.18 
https://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/08/21/india-to-double-emissions-by-2030-but-within-paris-commitments/

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Depending on developmental needs and pace of economic growth, India’s emissions growth is most likely to remain within the commitments it has made under the Paris climate pact

Prospects for new coal-fired power plants is currently low in India (Photo by J.W. Vein)
In 2030, when countries have to take stock of their commitments under the Paris climate agreement, India will double its carbon dioxide emissions from its 2012 levels, but will still be within its intensity pledge, according to a new study by experts from the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research (CPR) and elsewhere.
This is because India is starting with a very low base. “India’s 2030 per capita emissions will be below today’s global average and absolute emissions will be less than half of China’s 2015 emissions from the same sources,” says the study, the lead author of which is Navroz Dubash of the CPR.
The study notes the models predicting future emissions vary widely because they are based on different, often implicit, assumptions. The authors use a novel interpretive approach where they make clear the assumptions regarding technologies and policies in their model-based scenario analyses. They use these as a benchmark to judge scenario assumptions and results.
According to the study, India plays a key role as a “significant” emitter of greenhouse gases, but starting with a low base level, and as a large emerging economy, is also a major actor in mitigating carbon emissions. It observes that perceptions of India’s role vary from “an energy-hungry climate deal-breaker to a forerunner of a low carbon future.”
Thus a 2017 paper by R. Fofrichof the University of California at Irvine and Christine Shearer from the NGO CoalSwarm on future carbon dioxide emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India states: “India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions due to its growing population, industrialising economy, and large coal reserves.”
It assessed existing and proposed construction of these plants and evaluated their implications for future energy production and emissions in the country. “In 2016, India had 369 coal-fired power plants under development totalling 243 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity. These coal-fired power plants would increase India’s coal-fired generating capacity by 123% and would exceed its projected electricity demand.”
“India’s current proposals for new coal-fired power plants would be forced to retire early or operate at very low capacity factors and/or would prevent India from meeting its goal of producing at least 40% of its power from renewable sources by 2030. In addition, future emissions from proposed coal-fired power plants would exceed India’s climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33-35% by 2030.”
Differing perceptions
By contrast, an article in Scientific American journal last April also refers to the CoalSwarm survey on which the previous study was based, but takes a more positive view. It noted the survey came a year after an International Energy Agency projection that India would be responsible for around half of the coal-fired power capacity added globally until 2040. A research paper based on the survey, which was released in the American Geophysical Union journal Earth’s Future, concluded that India would be unable to meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement if all those plants were built.
However, the article noted that subsequently, the Indian government decided that more such plants wouldn’t be built for a decade and “about 50 GW of planned coal capacity has either been shelved or left inactive, and the country has targeted a 275-GW renewable energy share for 2027 instead.”
“Planned coal plants in India totalled 290,000 MW in 2015 — equivalent to nearly 500 large coal fired-units. As of mid-2018 that number has fallen to just over 100,000 MW, as most of the planned capacity has been cancelled. This is a fast and remarkable development, aided by the steep decline in renewable energy prices that the study by Dubash and colleagues cite,” Shearer told indiaclimatedialogue.net“Prospects for future coal plants are currently low, as the Indian government estimates 40,000 MW of the country’s coal plants are financially stressed, including 25,000 MW that have been completed without any power purchase commitments. These trends are only likely to continue, and India may soon be the most rapid example of the energy changes overtaking much of the world.”
“The paper is a timely review of modelling and scenario analysis for India,” said Tim Buckley of the International Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis in Sydney. “India is at the very least on track to deliver its NDC (nationally determined contributions) and if current policy remains in place, there is a high probability of a materially better outcome.”
Fifteen scenarios
Dubash’s paper looked at assumptions of 15 scenarios drawn from seven studies, and grouped the studies into interpretive categories to extract conclusions on future emissions, energy demand and energy supply. It reported only the components that were comparable — CO2 emissions from energy, excluding CO2 emissions from industrial processes and land use changes.
In 2012, this subset of emissions represented about 68% of India’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The authors reported projections for 2030, the target date for India’s (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. They also compared scenario projections on India’s energy needs for development, since divergent assumptions about energy needs may help explain disparate projections.
The modelling studies project a wide range of 2030 projections for CO2, the lowest projecting a 9% increase from 2012 levels, and the highest a 169% increase. Underlying these projections are a range of assumptions about India’s development needs. “The scope for variation in these assumptions is large because India has not, as yet, locked into infrastructure, socio-economic patterns and technology choices around energy use,” the study says.
India will have to undergo three major transitions: provide commercial cooking energy to 800 million people and electricity to 300 million; manage a shift from 30% to 50% urbanisation; and provide jobs for an estimated 10 million new job seekers a year. The country’s growth trajectory will obviously impact its emissions and models have to simulate these choices and their effects.
Growth in renewables
The studies project high rates of non-fossil fuel electricity growth, primarily from modern renewables. India is projected to generate as much non-fossil fuel electricity by 2030 as it generated from all sources in 2012. However, total electricity demand will rise even faster than renewables, necessitating an overall growth in fossil fuel use.
The authors state that these results have to be assessed in the context of falling renewable energy prices globally, increasing stranded coal assets and decreased estimates of coal requirements in India and increasing consideration of environmental co-benefits such as air quality which collectively point to a lower carbon future than currently projected.
By contrast, China’s 2015 emissions from energy of 9,085 metric tonnes (Mt) CO2 is more than double India’s projected 2030 emissions from energy that the study considers an upper limit. Hence, over the next decade, India’s emissions growth, while significant, is at a lower scale and pace than China’s in the preceding two decades. The authors conclude: “India is unlikely to play as dominant a role in shaping global emissions futures as China has played in the past decade.”
“This is an interesting meta-analysis of other studies, which seems to broadly suggest that India will most likely meet its emissions intensity commitment under the NDC,” Ashok Srinivas of the Pune-based energy research group Prayas told indiaclimatedialogue.net. “The policy announcements around 2015 seem to play a significant part in lowering expectations of future emissions, which is an interesting insight.”
Ashish Fernandes, a Greenpeace campaigner now in the US, added: “This analysis reiterates how fast the energy world is changing. For example, the wind tariffs mentioned in the paper are already out of date, with the new low being Rs 2.4, not Rs 3.4 per unit. India looks certain to meet its Paris NDCs, but we cannot rest on those limited ambitions.”
“Research methodologies, especially qualitative ones, are very robust and detailed. In the paper this might have been followed, but is not very clear,” Vaibhav Chaturvedi from the Council for Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), another think tank in New Delhi, told indiaclimatedialogue.net. “In absence of this clarity, the conclusions should be taken more as authors’ opinion rather than an insight that is robust to multiple approaches.”

Wednesday 12 September 2018





Negotiations


Time running out for meeting emission targets

07.09.18 

http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/09/07/time-running-out-for-meeting-emission-targets/
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National governments need to deepen their commitments to reduce emissions and find faster technological fixes to avoid the catastrophic effects of climate change

The world needs deeper emission cuts (Photo by P.M. Jurgen)
Ahead of the ongoing UN Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Bangkok, its executive secretary Patricia Espinosa warned in no uncertain terms that governments were not on track to cap global temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius before the end of the century and they needed to act with utmost urgency to avoid “catastrophic effects.”
Espinosa’s warning was echoed at the ninth successive annual conference of the Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) on August 10-11, which was built around the theme of co-benefits and conflicts in climate change and sustainable development.
More specifically, it focused on how while all countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) wouldn’t restrict average temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, there was increased attention on 1.5 degrees in the run-up to 2020, when the Paris agreement comes into effect.
Tejal Kanitkar, who is on the Centre’s faculty, examined the challenges for global equity in this context. She noted that past emissions, which the late environmentalist Anil Agarwal had harped upon, were “erased from memory.” Industrial countries weren’t even acknowledging their responsibility for causing such damage.
Selective amnesia
This means that industrial countries’ emissions, which had accumulated in the atmosphere from the industrial revolution in the mid-19th century and led to an increase of 1 degree since then, were being conveniently forgotten about, even though these considerably restricted the current consumption of energy of developing countries, and thereby their development.
“In the literature, papers constantly change definitions and timelines,” alleged Kanitkar. “Instead of taking 1870 as the base line, it has been shifted to 2005, 2015 and 2017. The emphasis is only on future emissions and future warming.”
She said that the world’s total carbon budget to keep emissions under 2 degrees by 2100 was 799 giga-tonnes of carbon (Gtc) and only 635 Gtc for 1.5 degrees. The remaining budget was 194 Gtc for the 2 degrees scenario and 30 Gtc for 1.5 degrees.
This was under the estimation that present emissions from 1993 — soon after the Rio Earth Summit when the UNFCCC kicked in — till 2017 were around 200 Gtc. Past emissions from 1870 till 1992 were around 405 Gtc.
She cited two authors who this year stated: “While limiting median projected global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius is undoubtedly challenging, our results indicate it is not impossible.”
Transformational change
The NDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees by 2100. It is obvious that these commitments have to be substantially enhanced to keep emissions from crossing the tipping point. While keeping temperature rise from remaining between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees was possible, she said, “it requires transformational change across the board of modernity.”
What was India’s share? Its actual emissions were far below its entitlement, so it had 310 Gtc left between 1870 and 2012, and 110 Gtc in the period after that till 2017.
The US had overdrawn from its past budget by 70 Gtc, 21 Gtc from its present budget and had only 5 Gtc left. The European Union, with 28 countries, had overdrawn 46 and 10 Gtc, respectively, and had only 8 Gtc left. China had a past balance of 46 Gtc, a present balance of 2 and 21 left, respectively, while India similarly had 54, 23 and 19 Gtc left, respectively.
According to Kanitkar, India’s best-case scenario from 2018 to 2100 was 42 Gtc, a potential entitlement of 19 Gtc and the worst case scenario below that.
Raghunandan of the Centre for Technology & Development in Delhi added a nuance to the argument by pointing out that it was necessary to advocate equity within nations, which includes NDCs, as well. In an article in the Economic & Political Weekly he had co-authored with Navroz Dubash in 2013, they had observed that an alternative development pathway would have co-benefits for climate.
As far as the target in India’s NDCs of afforesting one-third of the country’s area was concerned, there was an emphasis only on planting trees, without examining the ecological services they perform. Greening highways, for example, was a cosmetic initiative when the authorities were moving in the opposite direction by relaxing environmental curbs on infrastructure and real estate.
When it came to transport, there was an excessive reliance on highways, without any attempt to shift from road to rail, which would greatly reduce emissions. Surprisingly, there was no talk of tackling urban transport or air pollution. The poor bore the brunt of poor public transport. There was talk of smart cities but these haven’t been translated into better urban initiatives.
Kamal Murari, also from TISS, discussed the climate impacts of a 2 and 1.5 degrees warmer world and pointed out that the vast bulk of research before the Paris conference in 2015 centred around 2 degrees Celsius.
Regional impacts
While there were regional impacts for developed countries, particularly the US, EU and Australia, there was little work being done in developing countries. It may have come as a surprise to learn that from 2000 to 2017, there has been a slowing down in the rate of annual emissions.
However, even with a near 1 degree rise there were observed risks worldwide, which included the deluge that Mumbai faced in July 2005, when 944 mm of rain fell in less than 24 hours.
How much sooner might one see a 1.5 degrees scenario? The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is a predictor of long-term climate phases and similar to long-lived El Niño-like patterns, an index based on anomalies in Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures. Using the IPO, there was a probability that the five-year average mean Global Mean Surface Temperature could be as close to reaching 1.5 degrees as 2025.
Countries have three main approaches to attempt to restrict temperatures from crossing this limit. The first are deep emission cuts, which now appear improbable since the NDCs do not address these. The second are technological fixes, mainly forest cover and carbon capture and storage, which are problematic both in their effectiveness and implementation. Geo-engineering is even more ethically and otherwise unwise. This makes it virtually certain that the window for limiting emissions has closed.
In the event of overshoot, the hazards that a country like India would face are heat waves. One has only to recall that in 2016 Phalodi in Rajasthan registered 51 degrees Celsius, the highest in the country since 1956. The country would conversely also be prone to extreme precipitation and tropical cyclones.
With mean temperatures of another half a degree at 22 degrees, heat waves for tropical countries like India would last 50% longer, which would play havoc with human health and agriculture. There would be a 10 cm increase in sea level rise by 2100, which would inundate coastal cities like Mumbai and Chennai and even cities close to the sea, like Kolkata.
“With a global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees, the availability of fresh water in the region would be about 10% lower than in the late 20th century. In a 2 degrees world, the researchers project this reduction to double to about 20%,” Murari observed. “Wheat yields would reduce twice as much at 2 degrees compared with a 1.5 degrees temperature increase.”
Uncertainty in policies
Vaibhav Chaturvedi and his colleagues from the Delhi-based think-tank, Council for Energy, Environment & Water (CEEW), outlined the uncertainties in India’s climate policy. He questioned whether future bids would replicate the low tariffs achieved in solar and wind auctions and would we see significant energy efficiency gains in the future across sectors? How would economic growth, urbanisation and rural-urban inequity evolve in the future?
As far as electricity generation was concerned, how would the mix evolve under an uncertain future and how will it be impacted by variable renewable energy? What were the implications of key uncertainties on India’s progress towards the NDC target of 40% share of non-fossil sources (all forms of renewable energy along with nuclear energy) in electricity generation capacity?
“When it came to emissions, in the absence of dedicated decarbonisation policies, how will India’s long-term carbon dioxide emissions evolve?” they asked. “By 2030, India aims to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% over 2005; how will this target be affected by its emissions and uncertainties in the end-use sectors over the long term?”
“How would India’s energy and emissions future be affected by a sectoral climate policy (coal cess) and by an alternative, economy-wide climate policy compatible with the 2 degrees target?”
They also questioned what India’s mid-century strategy and sustainable development policies would be: “How can India’s climate policy be aligned with sustainable development and national priorities, including equitable access to the global carbon space for its citizens?”
They concluded that the pace for transformation for a 2 degrees consistent pathway was going to be huge. Non-fossil energy capacity would very nearly need to double by 2050, while the share of electricity in the industrial sector increases to 55% in 2050.
Their assessment showed that solar was going to grow hugely, but this was sensitive to the cost of integration and who bore this cost. They didn’t see a decline in coal, unless there were dedicated decarbonisation policies.
NDC targets would be met and could be enhanced, but at a cost that needs to be better understood. An inequitable carbon budget means a drastic scale of energy system transformation, and India might need to bear this burden for the world.

Thursday 6 September 2018





Death of penguin chick in Mumbai zoo rekindles controversy